The honest answer is that everyone wonders this. Whether the market is climbing or cooling, whether rates are rising or steady, first-time buyers wrestle with the same question: should I wait? It’s the nature of a major financial decision. But here’s what our conversations with mortgage experts reveals: the barrier to getting on the ladder isn’t usually the perfect moment, it’s having the courage to get started. First-time buyers who wait for ‘ideal’ conditions often find the goal post keeps moving. Meanwhile, those who buy when they can afford it start building equity, and that accumulation matters more than perfectly timing the market entry point.
Current mortgage market snapshot:
- Base rates are stable: The Bank of England base rate sits at 3.75%, unchanged since December 2025 and well below the August 2023 peak of 5.25%.
- Rents keep rising: Average London rents reached £2,294/month in May 2026, up 2% year-on-year.
- First-time buyer advantages are real: You pay 0% stamp duty on properties up to £300,000, with a discounted rate up to £500,000.
- Fixed rates lock in certainty: If you can afford a mortgage now, locking in a fixed rate means your payment stays the same regardless of what happens next.
We spoke to Anthony Hall, Director at Mortgage Advisor Censeo Financial, who has nearly two decades of experience in the industry and in helping Pocket buyers onto the ladder. Here’s what he told us.
What’s happening with mortgage rates in 2026?
The Bank of England’s (BoE) Bank Rate (also known as the ‘base rate’) is currently 3.75%, following the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to hold it at this level at its June 2026 meeting. The Bank Rate has remained steady since December 2025, and it’s well below the 5.25% peak in August 2023. This stability matters.
After a period of increases that made mortgage rates feel unpredictable, the market has become more settled overall. However, lender rates have risen slightly over the last few weeks as the wholesale swap rates used to price fixed-rate mortgages have increased. This is an important reminder that mortgage rates can move even when the Bank Rate remains unchanged.
As Anthony says, “The current mortgage market remains relatively stable, although we have seen some lenders increase their rates recently. My advice is not to wait for the perfect mortgage rate, because nobody can accurately predict when that will arrive. If you have found the right property and the monthly payments are affordable and sustainable, that is normally a stronger reason to proceed than trying to time the market.”
Of course, no one has a crystal ball when it comes to future rates. UK inflation fell to 2.6% in June, but the Bank of England has warned that higher and more volatile energy prices resulting from the continuing conflict in the Middle East could cause inflation to rise again later this year and influence future rate decisions.
This uncertainty is exactly why waiting for rates to fall can be a gamble. Rates may reduce, but they could also rise further, while property prices and the availability of suitable homes may change. The most important consideration is whether buying is affordable based on the rates available now, rather than putting your plans on hold for a future rate that cannot be guaranteed.
What does this mean for first-time buyers?
To understand current mortgage rates, it helps to compare them with historical mortgage rates. The 3%-5% average rate we’re moving towards is historically normal, whereas the ultra-low rates we saw between 2009 and 2022 were an exception. For first time buyers, this means today’s rates are more in line with long-term norms than the unusually low rates of previous years.
Anthony says, “If you can afford a mortgage now and get a fixed rate for five years, your rate won’t change during that time.” Choosing a fixed rate now gives you stability, no matter what happens in the market
Buying vs renting: what’s the real cost of waiting?
The phrase we often hear is “timing the market” – the idea that if you just wait a bit longer, conditions will be better, rates will fall, prices will drop, or everything will align perfectly. The reality is messier. First-time buyers who wait often find themselves chasing goalposts that keep moving. Meanwhile, the cost of renting, and the lost opportunity of time to build equity, keeps climbing.
Here’s what waiting actually means:
- Each month you rent is a month you’re not building equity. You’re paying someone else’s mortgage while your own savings could be working toward yours. London rents are still high. Although the Renters Rights Act came into force on 1 May 2026, limiting rent increases to once per year, rents in London rose 2% in the 12 months to May 2026, averaging £2,294 per month. That’s roughly £27,500 a year you’re paying to someone else – money that builds someone else’s asset, not yours.
- You might lose the home you want. New builds, especially affordable homes in London, are limited and often go first to people who live or work in the area. Waiting to apply could mean missing out.
- You’re at the mercy of your landlord’s decisions. Renting means you’re subject to your landlord’s decisions: they can sell up, increase your rent or ask you to leave (if they have a valid reason). Buying a home gives first time buyers more control over their living situation.
- Interest rates might not fall. And that’s okay. Anthony’s advice here is candid: “We don’t know what’s going to happen definitively with interest rates,” and waiting for them to fall could mean waiting a long time. “If you can afford to buy, waiting for market changes might not be the best course of action.” In other words: time in the market beats timing the market.
What do first time buyers need to know about stamp duty in 2026?
Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) is the tax payable on property transactions in England. As a first time buyer, you’ll pay no stamp duty on a property priced up to £300,000 and a discounted rate on the portion from £300,001 to £500,000. If the price is above £500,000, the standard rates apply.
This SDLT relief is one of the biggest financial benefits you can take advantage of as a first time buyer. Understanding how much you might expect to pay, if any at all, allows you to budget accordingly and decide what you can realistically afford.
Read our blog about stamp duty for first time buyers to learn more about the rates and relief.
Is now the right time to buy for you?
Buying a home depends more on your own readiness than on perfect timing. As Anthony says, “The right time to buy is when you can afford it.” Here are three things to consider to help you decide if now is right for you:
Can you afford it?
Start by understanding what you can afford. Look at your last three months of bank statements, document your income and outgoings, and use an affordability calculator to estimate how much you can borrow.
For the most accurate picture of your home affordability, speak to an independent mortgage advisor (IMA). Anthony says, “A lot of people don’t realise that they are in a position to buy because they haven’t been assessed or received proper advice.” As a first time buyer, that advice can show whether you’re ready now.
What’s your credit situation?
Your credit history directly affects how much you can borrow and at what rate. You can check your report via the three main credit reference agencies in the UK: Experian, Equifax and TransUnion. Anthony’s advice: “Take a close look at your credit history and reports to understand where you stand.” Inaccuracies can impact your application, so flag anything that doesn’t look right.
How much deposit can you access?
“Understand how much savings and deposit you’ll potentially have access to,” says Anthony, including any financial help from family. If you’re still saving, a Lifetime ISA can boost your pot – just note that the property price cap is £450,000, which catches some London buyers out (plus last month, the government announced proposals for a new First Time Buyer ISA, but we don’t know many details yet).
What are some practical tips for first time buyers?
The decision to buy depends more on your finances than on the markets. If you’re asking “is now the right time?” And you’re still on the fence, this is what experts suggest you do first:
Tip 1: Get your income evidence ready
“Different lenders treat your income differently,” says Anthony. If you’re employed, have your latest payslips and P60 to hand. If you’re self-employed, you’ll need two to three years of accounts as proof of income.
Tip 2: Plan your budget
Anthony’s main advice is to “put together a detailed budget planner,” so you know exactly what your income and expenses are. Knowing your deposit amount will also help you see what kind of mortgage you might get before talking to a broker.
Tip 3: Get expert advice
Finally, talk to an IMA who knows the market for first time buyers. If you’re buying with an affordable provider like Pocket, we suggest speaking with a specialist, such as our recommended advisor Censeo, to help you make your next decision with confidence.
How can I get on the property ladder with Pocket?
Home affordability in London remains challenging, which is why schemes like Pocket exist. Pocket offers homes with 100% ownership and a 20% discount off the open market value. With developments in places like East Croydon, Walthamstow and Harrow, we have options at price points that work for first time buyers who’d otherwise be priced out.
Create your My Pocket account today to explore current availability and find out if you’re eligible.